Of topic: Y'all think the EV's are going to make it?...

[DawgNatty]

(please stay away from the political side - I know it's there and likely a big part of the convo, but, for this thread...keep it to just the vehicles and practicality)

General thoughts:

- I think there's a place for it.  But, I think it's getting close to reaching that "place".  Short commuter vehicles in warmer climates.  
- I think there are more challenges than they want to admit to making it more mainstream than it is.  (weather, number of chargers, efficiency)  
- Too many manufacturers went all in on it.   I believe Toyota had/has the best model so far.  
- I worry about all these "battery plants" and how some of the employment will shake out if these things don't get more widely accepted. 
- Having said that, I have almost zero interest in an EV.

[plumrdawg]

after seeing the pictures in Chicago last week of all the ev's stranded at charging stations, I have my doubts they are going to replace internal combustion engines. I would also like to see what will happen if there is a mass evacuation out of florida or someplace in the event of a major storm. none of them go nearly as far as they claim they do on a full charge. If they were serious about climate change they would be pushing liquified natural gas engines that are environmentally safe and we have and abundant supply. We could be totally energy independant instead of depending on the Chinese for the lithium

[Dawgalways]

Local commute only for practical purposes.

Higher acquisition cost and maintenance cost over time (new battery very expensive).

Questionable environmental benefit vs. IC engine. (not a political statement, just a reality when considering mining impacts for battery components and need to generate electricity to fuel the batteries).

[dncdawg]

I rented a Tesla a few months back while traveling in Arizona. It drove well, and was generally fun to drive, but that's really where it stopped for me. I had charge anxiety. It had a range of just under 300 miles, but I was constantly looking to make sure we could make it to the next charging station. We really had no problems there, but waiting 20 minutes to add about 50% of the battery life was a little annoying. I also didn't like that if you went to a crowded charging spot, the charge speed on super chargers was too slow, turning that 20 minutes to 40 minutes. Also, I encountered broken chargers at super charging stations more than once.

At a hotel, they had some slow chargers, so it was good to charge overnight, but it would really only take a handful of hours, so I'd get anxiety about leaving it there overnight, and hogging the charger.

The big issue for me is the risk of fire, and not being able to put it out. My garage is under my master bath. Of course there's a risk of fire from an internal combustion engine, but the number of times I've seen these cars on fire has really spooked me about parking that damn thing right under where I sleep, or even right outside.

[JC-DAWG83]

I think 10% market share is going to be the ceiling. EVs will be a luxury good/status symbol/virtue signal for the well to do. The general public can only afford to buy one vehicle to do all things and an ICE vehicle can do all of those things and an EV can't. The logistics and electricity demands for fast charging stations make them completely unprofitable unless the owner charges much more for a charge than a tank of gas costs. Not counting the cost of the land, each fast charger costs around $200,000 and the electrical demand is staggering. The cost of installing a charging point in a home is around $5000, assuming the home has enough electrical capacity in the service panel to handle the new charging point. This expense is in addition to the cost of the EV. Otherwise, charging on existing home wiring takes many, many hours. The fast chargers, even the Tesla superchargers which are the best available now, take around 15 minutes to charge an EV for 200 miles of range. If 2 cars are ahead of you in line, you will be at the charger for 45 minutes to get 200 miles of range. A Suburban at a gas pump can get enough gas for 200 miles of range (around 12 gallons) in around 5 minutes. If your Suburban or other ICE vehicle runs out of gas, you put a gallon or two into the tank and drive to a gas station and fill up and are on your way. If your EV runs out of charge, you have to call a rollback and have your EV taken to a charging point.

Weight and temperature extremes are the Achilles heels of EVs. Extreme cold and heat really reduce the range of EVs and carrying a load really hurts their range too. The Ford Lightning P/U has a range of around 250 miles under ideal circumstances but towing a 3000 lb trailer, about the weight of an average ski boat and trailer, cuts its range to around 80 miles.

I think mail delivery vehicles, school buses, park vehicles, utility meter reader vehicles, light local delivery vehicles, etc. are all great applications for EVs. They all drive a low number of miles a day and all return to the same place every evening where they can be charged on regular 110 volt chargers overnight. I think there are some great uses for them but I don't think being transportation for the general public is one of them.

[Toasty B]

[Milldawg]

I think your first point is spot on, they are good for local commuters. I don't know if the grid can take a bunch of cars trying to charge up. Also, when batteries start to be replaced people are going to be turned off by the price. Also, it will be interesting to see what the average batter life will be.

[DawgNatty]

I think this is nail/head.   Adding what someone mentions above...I would have the anxiety of getting a charge when needed..especially with travel.   There are too many negatives and not enough positives.   If you could go 1000 miles on a 15 min charge...THAT is a game changer. As you said, weather is a huge negative for the EV's.   All the examples mentioned are a great use of the technology.  

Hard to comment more here...but, I'll just say, they don't really pass the common sense test to me.

[McDonoughDawg]

Yes, they have their place.

[viper2369]

Your last point is one I've made and I agree with.  The application that makes the most sense is fleet vehicles, at least for a starting point.  I know UGA has all electric buses and it seems to work pretty well.

[RockmartDawg]

One telling happening is that Hertz is completely selling off their fleet of EVs and are replacing them with gasoline vehicles. I don't know if you could better prove a concept for a car than through a rental company.

Hertz is selling about 20,000 EVs and is replacing them with gasoline vehicles

[Toasty B]

How dare they

[DawgNatty]

Wow!  Agree, that's telling.   

There's a part of me that wonders if it's just a technology ahead of it's time...then, there's the part of me that thinks, as a couple of folks have said, there's a ceiling for EV's.  Like 10-20% of all vehicles...

One thing is for sure, there's a group out there, probably me included, that will give up my diesel/gas truck when they pry my cold, dead fingers off the steering wheel.

[Tomato Sandwich]

Hybrids make more sense to me

[DawgNatty]

I haven't owned one, but, they folks I know that do love them.   It sure makes common sense to me that you're getting the best of both worlds with a hybrid.   

Not to mention how cool you look in a Prius. 

[RockmartDawg]

Wow!  Agree, that's telling.   

There's a part of me that wonders if it's just a technology ahead of it's time...then, there's the part of me that thinks, as a couple of folks have said, there's a ceiling for EV's.  Like 10-20% of all vehicles...

One thing is for sure, there's a group out there, probably me included, that will give up my diesel/gas truck when they pry my cold, dead fingers off the steering wheel.
[/quote]

Just my opinion, but EVs can be very useful AND practical within a VERY limited set of usage parameters. Think of how golf carts are used within the confines of a golf community. You putter around, here and there, within your little confined area, and they are very practical. But then think of the idea of "I'll drive the golf cart to Athens for the game next weekend." That is so impractical that it is past ridiculous.

Maybe that is a slightly exaggerated picture of what I am thinking where it concerns using an EV within the same set of parameters that we have come to know and expect from normal everyday gasoline vehicles. But I think it does help to clarify the picture. I do think it is an applicable analogy.

I can jump in my everyday gasoline vehicle (that has a ton of miles on it, I might add) and I can drive to North Dakota, Montana, Yellowstone, Salt Lake City, Nevada, shoot... California, all the way up to the giant redwoods... to Las Vegas, and then back home again. I know because I've done it. I wonder... has there ever been even ONE such trip done in an EV? 

And we're just talking about the literal infancy of trying to apply such a concept to the masses. We've not even yet scratched the paint where it concerns applying a load to the electric grid. We're eons from even touching the grid to see what impact it will have, yet... and this is where I'll stop, because it can only become social/political/Googlesque at this point. Although, it is just pure common sense, but... I digress.

[deathdawg]

Not sure why many turned away from the hybrid model for 100% EV. Those are proving to be the optimal solution. The real implosion will be when a large portion of existing/used get dumped on the market. Fock em.

[RockmartDawg]

I think it has been driven by entities that will remain unnamed... and their little groomed lackeys who obey their commands. There is a massive state that has already introduced a bill, debated it, both houses voted to pass it, and the governor signed it, to make a law to say that only EVs will be sold there... and that is to begin only 6 years from now. Shall I comment further as to the absolute lunacy within that thought, much less actually doing it?

If EVs are to be used within those confined parameters I talked about before... then, fine. I think JC is spot-on when he says they will eventually trickle down to higher-income folk driving them around in local areas. Thing is... if that is the case then POOF, out goes the demand for a national charging station plan.

It's like it is so self-defeating that it won't be able to survive solely on its own merits... or the lack thereof.

[bNe]

hope not.

EVs are really bad for the environment.

[Concourse E]

I think there will be a decent market for it long term. I think you can get a pretty good performing car at the moment for roughly equivalent to the cost (total ownership including fuel), with the only significant drawback being range, weight, and charging stations. I think some of the mandates are going to result in more widely available charging stations.

Gas is relatively cheap at the moment all things considered. The price of oil per barrel one of the biggest bargains on the planet and even when oil has been relatively expensive, that's still been the case. Another decade like the 70s and you'd see a very rapid adoption of electric.

I do also like the potential for LNG powered cars like someone else already mentioned. Anything we can do to make demand fuel for vehicles more elastic will help in the long run.